Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds
Alexander
Volkanovski defends his UFC featherweight title for the sixth time as he faces
the No. 3-ranked contender Ilia Topuria in the headliner of UFC 298.
Volkanovksi
is coming off a second-round knockout loss to Islam Makhachev, while Topuria
unanimously defeated Josh Emmett in his previous fight.
Volkanovski
is the betting favorite at -120, and Topuria is the +100 betting underdog.
The sixth
UFC featherweight title defense of Alexander Volkanovski will headline the main
event of UFC 298 this weekend inside the Honda Center in Anaheim, California,
as he takes on the challenge of No. 3-ranked divisional contender Ilia Topuria.
Volkanovski
is coming off a second-round defeat at the hands of UFC lightweight champion
Islam Makhachev in October for his second attempt to be a two-division
champion. Despite that defeat, he remains the -120 betting favorite in UFC
odds.
On the other
hand, Topuria, who is the +100 betting underdog, is fresh off a masterful
unanimous decision victory against fellow top contender Josh Emmett to
officially set the stage for this championship clash with the Australian
champion.
Alexander
Volkanovski Recent Fight Results
Volkanovksi
has dominated the featherweight division since arriving in the UFC in November
2016. He collected 12 straight wins and became the division’s undisputed
champion by beating the likes of José Aldo, Max Holloway (thrice), The Korean
Zombie, and Brian Ortega.
After almost
clearing the top five contenders, Volkanovski moved up in weight and challenged
Makhachev twice in 2023, but lost on both occasions via unanimous decision and
first-round knockout, respectively. His last victory came against Yair
Rodriguez in July with a third-round TKO finish.
Ilia
Topuria Recent Fight Results
Topuria was
an undefeated prospect who had a 100% finish rate when he was signed by the UFC
in 2020. He made a successful debut in October 2020 and defeated Youssef Zalal
via unanimous decision, and since then, continued to wreak havoc in the
145-pound division.
He quickly
added Damon Jackson, Ryan Hall, Jai Herbert, and Bryce Mitchell to his hit list
to earn a spot in the division’s rankings. In his most recent fight, Topuria
won lopsided against former interim title challenger Emmett to punch a ticket against
Volkanovski for his first world title shot.
Alexander
Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria: Tale of the Tape
Alexander
Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria: Fight Analysis
The main
differences between Volkanovski and Topuria on paper are their age, reach, and
fighting style. Volkanovski will hold a 2-and-a-half-inch reach advantage at
71.5 inches against Topuria’s 69 inches. Meanwhile, Topuria will have the youth
edge as he is eight years younger than Volkanovski.
Their
fighting styles are also opposite, with Volkanovski being a striking-based
fighter and the challenger having a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background. This
contrasting approach to fighting is evident in their numbers, with both
athletes shining in the significant strikes and grappling departments.
Volkanovski
leads in significant strike output with 6.19 significant strikes landed per
minute and a 57% rate compared to Topuria’s 4.44 significant strikes landed per
minute and a 46% rate. Topuria has better numbers in significant strikes
absorbed per minute at 3.42, a 67% rate, compared to Volkanovski’s 3.42 at a
58% rate.
On the other
hand, Topuria has a massive upper hand in every major category with a 2.19
takedown average per 15 minutes (compared to Volkanovski’s 1.84), 56% takedown
accuracy (against Volkanoski’s 37%), 92% takedown defense (versus Volkanovski’s
70%), and 1.46 submission average per 15 minutes (against Volkanovki’s 0.18).
Although
they have a different fighting approach, this championship clash is expected to
be a stand-up affair due to their recent performances that saw them swing
against their opponents. Volkanovski has long been known to be a pressure
fighter who puts his opponents on the backfoot with his intelligent attack that
forces them to miss.
The
Australian champion has outclassed and outpointed his opponents with impeccable
timing, which frustrates his opponents throughout the fight. This strategy
often awards him the decision victory because of the cumulative damage he
inflicts, especially when the fight is at the latter stages.
But Topuria
is a different type of opponent because of his calculated aggression. He has
elite boxing skills that schools his opponents. That is not only the lone
threat that he presents as the Spanish challenger can also decide to ragdoll
his opposition to the ground when he knows that they are gassed out or slowing
down; this way, he can look for a ground-and-pound or submission finish.
Official
Prediction: Unanimous decision victory for Alexander Volkanovski.